ππΆ FF Hound | 8.27.25 (full notes)
16 episodes, 14 hours + 8 minutes
Episodes Processed:
All In Speed Run: Rashee Rice, News, Cuts, Ranks and Strategy (August 27)
Fantasy Feast: Preseason Week 3 Takeaways + an important announcement (August 27)
Fantasy Focus Football: Headlines From The Future | Fantasy Focus π (August 27)
Fantasy Football Advice Podcast: MAKE SURE You Draft These RBs! (2025 Fantasy Football) (August 27)
Fantasy Football Daily: Top 10 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the 2025 Season (August 27)
Fantasy Football Happy Hour: RB Tiers: Slotting DeβVon Achane, Ashton Jeanty among others + Rashee Rice suspended (August 27)
Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express - Dave Richardβs 2025 All-Breakout Team REVEALED! (08/26 Fantasy Football Podcast) (August 27)
Fantasy Football Today: Worst Values, Sorting RBs13-25, Fill in the Blank (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast) (August 27)
Fantasy Football with Josh & Hayden: Ultimate Top 52 WR Rankings For 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts (August 26)
Fantasy Life: The ULTIMATE Draft Strategy for 2025 Fantasy Football! (August 27)
Harris Fantasy Football Podcast: Handicapping The NFL In 2025 & Cutdown Day (August 27)
The Audible: Najee Harris Ready? Calvin Ridley, Tetairoa McMillan Values? [Footballguys Daily Update with Bob Harris for 8/27] (August 27)
The Fantasy Footballers: Fantasy Time Machine + Rashee Rice Suspended! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/27 (August 27)
The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast: Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Does It Have to End? (August 27)
The Ringer Fantasy Football Show: Last-Minute NFL News and Latest Fantasy Draft Trends (August 27)
Yahoo Fantasy Forecast: CRAM SESSION: The 8 biggest fantasy takeaways from the preseason (August 27)
π§ Today's Podcast Summaries
All In Speed Run
Rashee Rice, News, Cuts, Ranks and Strategy
TLDR: Prioritize Xavier Worthy as a high-upside WR over Rashee Rice, consider Ollie Gordon a strong RB3 target, and monitor the Colts' QB situation as it significantly impacts skill player values.
π Xavier Worthy: Advocated as a high-end Round 3 pick, ahead of Rashee Rice. Averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game (fringe WR2) and could reach 12-13 PPG.
π Rashee Rice: Averaged 13 fantasy points per game over 11 games (mid-WR2). His top-10 ceiling is questioned due to Xavier Worthy's potential emergence.
π Travis Kelce: Consider trading after Week 4; top-10 production is not guaranteed upon his return due to the threat from Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy.
π Ollie Gordon: A "really nice RB3" with weekly RB2 upside, compared to David Montgomery's touchdown potential.
π§ Superflex QB Strategy (Elite QB): If drafting a top-5 QB in Round 1, ensure a second QB is secured before Round 16-18 to maintain your drafted advantage.
π€ Superflex QB Strategy (Non-Elite QB): If drafting QBs later, "double tap" to get two solid starting QBs before Round 20-22 to avoid chasing low-end options.
ποΈ Bench Management: Avoid wasting bench spots on low-ceiling veterans like Adam Thielen (unless a short-term fill-in) or Kadarius Toney (needs 150 targets for WR44); prioritize potential breakouts.
π Xavier Legette & Jalen Coker: Both are considered "great flyers" for the Panthers, especially in deeper leagues, following Adam Thielen's departure.
π― Jatavion Sanders: A deep league tight-end flyer with potential to be the second or third most-valued tight end.
π Isaac TeSlaa (Lions): A waiver wire target with "big playability" if Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, or Sam LaPorta face injuries.
π Daniel Jones (Colts QB): If he starts all 17 games, stock up on Tyler Warren (contender for top-10 TE), Josh Downs, and Jonathan Taylor.
π Anthony Richardson (Colts QB): If he starts, Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman Jr.'s stock rises (Pittman is a "great WR3" with Jones, but "inconsistent WR4" with Richardson).
π₯ Dylan Sampson (Browns RB): Can be an RB3 in half/full-PPR leagues for the entire season, with potential for RB2 status if he starts hot (compared to Najee Harris/Austin Ekeler).
π Marvin Mims & Cedric Tillman (Browns WRs): Both are "stock up" targets as WR4s, offering "league-winning-ish" upside in certain weeks.
Fantasy Feast
Preseason Week 3 Takeaways + an important announcement
TLDR: Christian McCaffrey remains a league-winner with potential to slide in drafts; Breece Hall offers high upside at a discount, despite timeshare concerns.
π Christian McCaffrey: Minimal impact from the Brian Robinson Jr. trade; he out-touched Jordan Mason 42-3 when healthy. Still a league-winning pick, public opinion may cause him to slide to the back of the first round.
π¦ Isaac TeSlaa: Lions trading Tim Patrick opens up the WR3 role. Showed promise in preseason with high athletic scores; a deep league target (14-team+) but may lack standalone fantasy value.
π Dante Cephas: Raiders' pure deep threat who led the nation with 25.5 yards per catch last year (most in a decade among FBS WRs). Target in the last round, leveraging Geno Smith's deep ball.
βοΈ Marvin Mims: Stock should be raised, as he played nearly all of Bo Nix's preseason snaps in two-WR sets. Devaughn Vele trade further solidifies his role. Draft around the 8th-9th round.
π― Chig Okonkwo: Played significant first-team snaps in preseason, expected to be an every-down tight end for Tennessee in an improved environment. Extends the flat TE tier, don't rush for other TEs.
π Harold Fannin Jr.: Browns TE with a record-setting 117 catches and 37% target share in 2024 (presumably 2023 season data), with a class-high 3.9 yards per route running against zone. Diontae Johnson's cut creates a Week 1 opportunity; "smash him on deeper benches."
π° Breece Hall: Impossible to rank due to potential timeshare with Braelon Allen, but offers high PPR upside (targets 1.5x carries) with a double-digit target share archetype. His ADP has slipped, making him a value pick in the range of James Cook and Kenneth Walker III.
βοΈ Christian Kirk: Identified as a favorite Texans receiver for this year, expected to be the starting slot receiver and play in two-WR sets. The Texans' slot receiver position historically garnered a 30% target share in C.J. Stroud's rookie year.
Fantasy Focus Football
Headlines From The Future | Fantasy Focus π
TLDR: Target Ricky Pearsall (WR44 ADP) and Ladd McConkey for significant upside, both projected for strong seasons; Tony Pollard gains early feature-back clarity with other RBs on IR.
π₯ Tetairoa McMillan: Identified as a high-upside WR3 in a crowded tier, offering a higher ceiling than safer options and could be a league-winner.
π Tony Pollard: Cemented as a feature back for at least the first four games due to Tyjae Spears and Pierre Strong Jr. being placed on IR, potentially maintaining this role all season.
β οΈ Quinshon Judkins: Remains unsigned with potential NFL suspension despite no criminal charges; draft as a high-risk, high-reward late-season league-winner, not a Week 1 contributor.
β Isaac TeSlaa: Expected to become the team's number three wide receiver after the Tim Patrick trade, making him a late-round flyer to watch.
π― Kimani Vidal: Recommended as a late-round draft target, expected to flash early and potentially earn significant touches (e.g., 275 carries), despite being in a confusing backfield.
π Ricky Pearsall: Strongly projected as a top 25 wide receiver over the first four months, currently available with a WR44 ADP, offering significantly better value and play than Jauan Jennings (whose 46.5-point outlier game distorts his average).
π Ladd McConkey: Due for a better second season with a real and legitimate quarterback upgrade and no added target competition, potentially offering elite, Justin Jefferson/Ja'Marr Chase-level upside.
π€ Omarion Hampton: Despite significant hype, Najee Harris is expected to play; however, Hampton could still out-carry Harris in Week 1, making him a fascinating early-season storyline to monitor.
Fantasy Football Advice Podcast
MAKE SURE You Draft These RBs! (2025 Fantasy Football)
TLDR: Prioritize high-upside RBs in Rounds 1-2 and target Omarion Hampton in Round 3 for his clear goal-line role and RB1 potential. Later, draft Zach Charbonnet as a league-winning handcuff and shoot for talented, high-upside rookie RBs like Jaden Blue in Rounds 11-13.
πββοΈ Rounds 1-2 RBs: Every RB in these rounds is a good pick. Top tier includes Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey (R1), and Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Kenneth Walker III, Josh Jacobs (R2), with Chase Brown and Bucky Irving also strong.
π§ Draft Strategy: Never draft a player in the first two rounds you lack confidence in; get at least one RB in the first two rounds unless at the end of Round 1 for a WR/WR start (e.g., Nico Collins/Puka Nacua or Malik Nabers/Amon-Ra St. Brown).
π€ De'Von Achane: Concern about his calf injury; if drafted, consider pairing him with Ollie Gordon later in the draft for upside.
π Omarion Hampton: Favorite Round 3 RB due to elite offense/QB/coaching and clear goal-line role; projects for 25-30 receptions, enough for RB1 production.
π©Ή Kenneth Walker III: A risky Round 4 option due to injury history (lingering foot issue) but a potential top-10 RB if fully healthy, perfectly suited for Seattle's new scheme.
π Zach Charbonnet: A must-draft player due to his direct path to a top-7 RB role for a month if Kenneth Walker III misses time; great value whether you have Walker or not.
π TreVeyon Henderson: A safer Round 4 pick than Walker with slightly less upside, but expected to be targeted heavily in full PPR and offers explosive plays that distinguish him from other backfield RBs.
π Will Shipley: A Round 6 target for the Ravens' two-back system; benefits from J.K. Dobbins' extensive injury history (played 37 of 85 career games, averaged 7.5 games/season, missed 4+ games in all but rookie year).
π― Jordan Mason: An "ultimate upside pick," especially in half PPR if you don't need immediate production; potential league-winner if injuries occur, providing weekly value in favorable matchups.
π§ Draft Strategy: After drafting Zach Charbonnet, a "tier break" occurs; shift focus to QB/TE before revisiting RBs in the Rounds 11-13 range.
π Jaguars Backup RB (Talented): In the 11-13 range, target this talented but currently crowded backfield (Travis Etienne Jr., Tank Bigsby); too skilled to stay on the sidelines long-term.
βοΈ Braelon Allen (Jets): A "super young rookie" with a strong "drumbeat" of hype, making him a high-upside target in later rounds.
π€ Jaden Blue (Cowboys): A later-round target with explosive potential and high missed tackle rate; if he improves pass protection, he could carve out a Tony Pollard-like role with 8-10 carries and 5-6 targets weekly.
π₯ Ollie Gordon: A strong dart throw in deep rounds; was the best college RB in 2023 and presents an opportunity if De'Von Achane misses time due to injury.
π» Woody Marks (Texans): Strong late-round target with immediate passing-down work; upside if Joe Mixon doesn't play or Dameon Pierce continues to disappoint, despite a "really, really bad" offensive line.
Fantasy Football Daily
Top 10 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for the 2025 Season
TLDR: Draft Brock Bowers for potential record-breaking tight end targets and catches, while Jonathan Taylor offers dark horse RB1 upside in the second round due to his elite splits without Anthony Richardson.
π― Brock Bowers: Projected to set an NFL record for tight ends with 168 targets and 125 catches; expected to be a first-round pick in 2026 across all formats.
π Jonathan Taylor: Identified as a dark horse RB1 with top-3 upside, available in the back half of Round 2. Averaged 18.5 PPR PPG (RB4) in 41 starts without Anthony Richardson, compared to 15.9 PPR PPG (RB14) in 11 starts with him.
π Brian Thomas Jr. (BTJ): Predicted to win the Triple Crown, having posted the 4th most PPR points for a rookie WR in the last 15 years. New OC's history suggests a high volume of slants, where BTJ had the best average separation score last year.
π° Tony Pollard: Strong target in Round 6 with RB1 upside, especially given Tyjae Spears' injury. Held the 5th highest target share (12.8%) among RBs pre-Week 15 in games where Spears was active.
π₯ Joe Burrow: Projected to throw 51 touchdown passes this season, with the Bengals' offense averaging 30 points per game, potentially leading the league in QB scoring.
β‘ Justin Fields: Predicted to finish as a top-6 fantasy QB despite a current ADP of QB13/14. He has finished as a top-9 QB in 3 straight seasons and ranks 2nd in rushing yards per start historically among QBs.
π» Rome Odunze: Boldly predicted to outscore DJ Moore, boasting 2.9 yards per route run in college (same as Tetairoa McMillan) and expected to play full-time in 2-WR sets (up from 44% last year).
π Tetairoa McMillan: Projected as a top-10 scoring rookie WR, predicted to lead Carolina in targets with at least 145 targets and tie the Panthers' rookie touchdown record with 9 TDs. Current ADP suggests he should be a 3rd-round pick.
π RJ Harvey: Expected to outscore TreVeyon Henderson. Sean Payton's offenses have consistently produced 113+ backfield targets since 2014, and the Broncos were 3rd in target share to the backfield on 1st/2nd down last year.
π― Jameson Williams: Predicted to finish as a WR1 with targets increasing from 91 to 117, leading the NFL in 10+ catches of 40+ yards, and catching 12 touchdown passes.
β George Pickens: Projected as a top-15 WR in his first season in Dallas. Despite just 2 TDs on 18 red-zone targets over two seasons, significant positive touchdown regression is anticipated in Dallas's top-10 passing offense.
π Christian McCaffrey: Predicted as the RB1 overall, fully healthy with key target competition (Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings) out, potentially increasing his route share to 70-75%.
π₯ George Kittle: Identified as the TE1 overall. After finishing as TE1 in FPPG last year, he's expected to see 120-130 targets due to Brandon Aiyuk's injury, also ranking 3rd in red-zone separation.
π Ja'Marr Chase: Predicted to be the WR1 overall and the 1.01 in drafts, with a projection of 20 touchdown catches (which would be 3rd most in NFL history).
Sleeper: Brenden Rice (WR, Chargers): A late-round (Round 15+) sleeper with an "awesome" analytical production profile (over 1/3 team market share at age 20/21). Expected to become a full-time player by mid-season.
Sleeper: Jalen Coker (WR, Panthers): An end-of-draft target (Round 15-16) who could become the clear slot starter if Adam Thielen is traded. Outperformed Marvin Harrison Jr. in several rookie production metrics.
Sleeper: Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, Browns): A fun late-round pick for tight end premium, described as an "overgrown wide receiver with tight end eligibility." Projected for high target volume and a potential TE1 finish as early as Week 1.
Fantasy Football Happy Hour
RB Tiers: Slotting DeβVon Achane, Ashton Jeanty among others + Rashee Rice suspended
TLDR: Prioritize De'Von Achane and Ashton Jeanty as high-upside RBs with significant workloads, and capitalize on Rashee Rice's 6-game suspension creating a short-term value opportunity.
π De'Von Achane: Expected ready for Week 1; averaged 22 fantasy points per game in games Tua Tagovailoa started last year, making him a potential top fantasy RB despite injury risks due to massive target share.
π Ashton Jeanty: As a top-10 drafted RB, historically, 5 of 7 RBs drafted this high averaged at least 19 touches/game and finished as top 7 fantasy RBs, indicating a high floor and ceiling.
π― Rashee Rice: Has a 6-game suspension, creating a draft value; last year, he had a 30% target share and over 21 fantasy points per game in the first three weeks.
π Rashee Rice: Considered "very special" and is expected to be the #1 WR for the Chiefs when on the field, or at worst a 1B to Xavier Worthy's 1A.
β¬οΈ Xavier Worthy: Moves up draft boards due to Rice's suspension, but is likely the 1A to Rice's 1B when both are available.
π° Adam Thielen: Offers cheap fantasy value for the first 3 weeks with Jordan Addison suspended and Jalen Nailor injured.
β Jalen Coker: With Thielen traded, Coker is projected to be a "big slot" receiver for Bryce Young in the Panthers' youth movement.
πͺ Bijan Robinson: Despite two starting right tackles being out, Bijan Robinson's elite talent should allow him to overcome average offensive line play.
β‘ Jahmyr Gibbs: Led all RBs in fantasy points per touch last year and proved he could handle a "massive workload" when David Montgomery was out.
π₯ Chase Brown: Positioned in a high-scoring Bengals offense with a bad defense, leading to many scoring opportunities and a preference over Bucky Irving.
π Bucky Irving: Was one of the most efficient RBs in football last year based on underlying advanced statistics.
Comeback Jonathan Taylor: Recorded 1800+ rushing yards and 15 TDs in 17 healthy games; a top-10 RB with Daniel Jones potentially improving pass-game usage.
π‘οΈ Kyren Williams: Led all RBs in runs on touches and snap rate last year, and a significant contract shows the Rams' confidence in his consistent role.
π Chris Godwin: Not on the PUP list, indicating an earlier return than expected (anywhere from Week 2 to Week 5); had 65 targets last year.
π Alvin Kamara: Never had a target share below 18% and is a consistent PPR cheat code, capable of producing top-15 numbers; expect him to fall around the 5th-6th round in SuperFlex drafts.
π RJ Harvey: Under Sean Payton, the Broncos historically lead in RB target share, making Harvey an "explosive" option in the passing game.
π J.K. Dobbins: An "unbelievable value" at his current cost, expected to handle early-down and goal-line work for the Ravens.
ποΈ Tony Pollard: Is a "workable solid" fantasy option for at least the first four weeks of the season.
β¬οΈ TreVeyon Henderson: A rookie RB with high upside, capable of being effective on just 15 touches, making him a potential Tier 1/2 RB next year (currently RB18).
π©Ή Zach Charbonnet: Preferred over Kenneth Walker III due to Walker's health concerns and offers good insurance value.
π James Cook: Is a "hate list" candidate, with 40% of his fantasy points from touchdowns last season, signaling likely regression.
π― D'Andre Swift: A strong value pick outside the top 20, projected to finish as RB16 due to his role as RB1 in a Ben Johnson offense with an elite O-line and expected reception uptick.
π€ Aaron Jones: Led RBs in receptions and receiving yards last year; will be heavily involved in the passing game for the Vikings, especially with WR injuries.
β¬οΈ Jordan Mason: Averaging over 5 yards per carry, will handle early-down and short-yardage work for the Vikings.
π Jaylen Warren: The Steelers' most trusted RB in a run-heavy scheme, and Russell Wilson isn't afraid to dump to RBs.
π€ Travis Etienne Jr. / Tank Bigsby: One of these Jaguars RBs is expected to emerge with significant value, making either worth a shot in drafts.
π οΈ Dameon Pierce: Could accumulate double-digit touchdowns despite inefficiency due to a high workload, serving as the #1 RB in the Texans offense with C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins.
Fantasy Football Today
FFT Express - Dave Richardβs 2025 All-Breakout Team REVEALED! (08/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)
TLDR: Target a full "All Breakout Team" for 2025, featuring high-upside players like Drake Maye (QB12 potential) and Bucky Irving (18.1 PPR/game in final 8 games), largely available after the first round, to build a competitive roster.
π Drake Maye: Projected breakout QB who averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game (6-point passing TDs) in his last 11 starts and was on pace for 630 rushing yards in 10 healthy games (3rd best rushing QB). Available around Round 8.
π Bucky Irving: Averaged 14.4 PPR points per game in 2024, surging to 18.1 PPR in his final 8 games despite playing >60% of snaps in only two. Projected for increased snaps; target in Round 2-3.
βοΈ Jordan Mason: Moved ahead of Aaron Jones in non-PPR/half-PPR, expected to get more high-value rushing touches and carries as Vikings skew younger. Available late Round 7, Round 8.
π Marvin Harrison Jr.: Projected breakout WR, Kyler Murray dedicated to targeting him, and scrambling plays could create off-schedule opportunities. PPR-dependent; available in Round 4-5.
β‘ Jameson Williams: Averaged 15 PPR points per game in his last 8 games of the previous season, with high ceiling due to explosiveness in a strong Lions offense. Target in Round 4-5.
π Ricky Pearsall: Averaged 18 PPR points in his last 3 games for San Francisco. Expected to see a significant uptick in target volume (projected +0.5 targets/game from 6.8) due to 49ers injuries, anticipating a hot start. Available in Round 6.
β Tucker Kraft: Identified as a breakout TE after being "unbelievably efficient" but underutilized last year. Potential for consistent double-digit PPR points and red-zone scores, filling a George Kittle-like role. A late-round target in Round 8-9.
Fantasy Football Today
Worst Values, Sorting RBs13-25, Fill in the Blank (08/27 Fantasy Football Podcast)
TLDR: Prioritize James Cook, Omarion Hampton, and TreVeyon Henderson in Round 3 of full PPR drafts, but avoid Derrick Henry in Round 1 (PPR) and top QBs like Josh Allen early.
π€ Kaleb McGary: Falcons RT injury (out for season) is not expected to significantly change fantasy outlooks for Bijan Robinson or Drake London, who are still projected for high-level production.
π Omarion Hampton: This Jets RB's ADP has risen from a preferred Round 4 target to Round 2 or 3 in some leagues.
β οΈ Matthew Stafford: His ongoing back injury is a concern for Puka Nacua (WR9) and Davante Adams (WR19), but analysts still find them draftable at their current ADPs.
π Drake London: Current ADP as WR7 (16-17 overall) puts him in a tight tier with Puka Nacua and Brian Thomas Jr., with preference often dictating the pick.
β Najee Harris: Being off the NFI list doesn't guarantee a Week 1 return but removes the mandatory four-game absence.
π Tony Pollard: Tyjae Spears being placed on IR significantly boosts Pollard's fantasy value; analysts rank him RB20-23.
π©Ή Christian Watson: At 27% rostered and on the PUP list (out at least 4 games), he is a recommended IR stash.
π₯ Taysom Hill: On the PUP list, he's a potential last-pick IR stash in leagues with IR spots.
π Kyren Williams: His CBS ADP of 18th overall is considered a poor value, despite consistent volume (21 touches per game) and top-20 production in the last two seasons.
π Breece Hall: While RB17 (40th overall) is seen as poor value, "buying the dip" if he falls later (e.g., 58th overall in a 14-team league) is advisable due to a projected 11.5 carries per game and high target volume.
π« Aaron Jones: Ranked RB22 (54th overall), analysts suggest avoiding him for earlier picks, preferring players like RJ Harvey, David Montgomery, or Isiah Pacheco, and even Jordan Mason in Round 8.
π DJ Moore: His WR22 (52nd overall) ADP is considered too high due to a crowded Bears receiving corps with Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen limiting upside.
π Zay Flowers: Despite talent, his WR26 (63rd overall) ADP is a poor value due to the Ravens' low-volume pass offense; a significant touchdown spike is needed to exceed 12+ PPR points/game.
β Derrick Henry: His 8th overall ADP in PPR is universally deemed too high; only consider him as a late Round 1 pick (e.g., 11th overall) in non-PPR formats.
π Josh Allen/Joe Burrow: Avoid drafting any QB in the first two rounds; Josh Allen (17th overall) is considered too early due to the Bills' offensive philosophy (low pass volume, reduced rush attempts).
π€ James Conner: Considered an "old running back" prone to injury, with Trey Benson expected to cut into his touches. He causes "indigestion" for some analysts.
π Marvin Harrison Jr.: Preferred in non-PPR leagues; some analysts would draft DK Metcalf over him.
π Michael Pittman Jr.: His 98th overall ADP is surprising given concerns about the Colts' passing attack; expectations are closer to 6 targets and 10 PPR points/game, making him a bench receiver in full PPR.
π― Adam Thielen: A late-round target, he can be a good early-season fill-in in deep leagues or if your WR3/Flex is weak.
β¬οΈ Brock Bowers: With Jakobi Meyers (150 targets last year) staying with the Raiders, concerns exist about Bowers' target volume, making his high ADP (Round 2) a poor value when comparable TE production is available later (Kittle, McBride).
π Garrett Wilson: His WR14 (30th overall) ADP is considered too early by some analysts, who rank him closer to WR25.
π’ Xavier Worthy: His WR19 ADP is considered too high, preferred as a low-end WR2 with anticipated inconsistent week-to-week scoring (e.g., 8 to 23 PPR points).
πββοΈ RB Tier 3 (PPR): James Cook, Omarion Hampton, and TreVeyon Henderson are top targets for Round 3.
πββοΈ RB Tier 4 (PPR): Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Walker III, James Conner, and RJ Harvey are candidates for Round 4.
πββοΈ RB Tier 5 (PPR): Tony Pollard, Isiah Pacheco, David Montgomery, and D'Andre Swift are considered later-round (Round 5) options.
π Chuba Hubbard vs. Tony Pollard: Hubbard is favored due to Tyjae Spears' eventual return, Carolina's rising offense, and a safer offensive line/quarterback situation.
π RJ Harvey: Debated value, with some analysts making a strong case for him as a Round 3/4 pick due to favorable preseason usage, a strong Broncos offensive line (ranked #2), and offensive maturation.
β¬οΈ Isiah Pacheco: Preferred by many analysts over David Montgomery and D'Andre Swift, placing him as an early Round 5 pick. In 12 games with at least six targets last year, he averaged 15.8 PPR points per game, though he is still considered a "number two wide receiver" going too early.
π Draft Strategy: If starting RB-RB, focus on acquiring WRs next. If De'Von Achane is available in the middle of Round 2, be "ecstatic." If drafting Brock Bowers in Round 1, be out on him in Rounds 2 and 3. Don't limit drafting multiple Lions if good value exists (e.g., Jameson Williams in R5/6, Sam LaPorta in R7).
Fantasy Football with Josh & Hayden
Ultimate Top 52 WR Rankings For 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts
TLDR: Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb are elite WRs with historical production; target value rookies like Ricky Pearsall, Matthew Golden, and Emeka Egbuka for late-season upside.
π Ja'Marr Chase: Ranked as the 1.01 WR, averaged more half PPR points per game than three different teams' WRs combined last year, delivering 3.7 PPG more than the WR2 and three weeks over 36 half PPR points.
βοΈ CeeDee Lamb: Ranked 2nd overall (ahead of top RBs), WR1 overall in PPG over the last two seasons, averaged 130 yards per game in 2023 and consistently a top-10 scorer even with backup QBs.
π Justin Jefferson: Leads NFL history in career yards per game (96.5), expected to maintain elite production despite a more balanced Vikings offense.
π₯ Puka Nacua: Averaged 96.8 yards per game in games with >50% snaps, leading all WRs in targets per route run (14%) and first downs per route run, showcasing top-tier potential even with a lingering Matthew Stafford injury.
πͺ Nico Collins: Ranked as their WR4, was WR3 in PPG Weeks 1-5 last year, identified as a 6'4", 225-pound talent whose main concern is health; his home league ADP is WR6.
π₯ Amon-Ra St. Brown: Combined WR6, was #1 in expected fantasy points and 6th in expected touchdowns based on usage, consistently healthy and poised for strong production.
π― Malik Nabers: Led the NFL in targets per game (11.3) last year, with expectations for improved QB play and offensive efficiency in his second season.
π Brian Thomas Jr.: Combined WR8, from Week 12 on, only Ja'Marr Chase had more half PPR points, averaging 96 yards and 11 targets per game, functioning as the complete focal point of his offense with no cap on his ceiling.
πββοΈ A.J. Brown: Combined WR9, posted the second-best yards per route run (behind Puka) and best (4.31) vs. press coverage, with potential for increased volume if the Eagles pass more than their league-low 25.7 attempts per game last year.
β‘ Ladd McConkey: Combined WR10, considered the best rookie on film last year with #1 per-route metrics, averaging 88 yards per contest over his final 10 games, and 2nd in NFL in targets off play-action.
β¬οΈ Tee Higgins: Combined WR12, tied WR2 in PPG last year (WR4 in full PPR) and #1 in expected TDs per game, benefiting from more underneath routes with Tyler Boyd's departure, making him a tier-up candidate if a teammate is injured.
π Tyreek Hill: Combined WR13, saw target efficiency drop to 2% better than average last year (from 17-31% previously), but is available at his cheapest ADP (WR13) since 2018, offering top-5 upside despite injury and off-field concerns.
π΄ Davante Adams: Combined WR14, was WR8 in PPG and WR2 in usage last year, a red-zone factor with 12 combined TDs over the last few years, but carries age risk and would be significantly impacted by a backup QB.
π― Mike Evans: Combined WR15, has achieved 1,000+ yards every season, showing substantial splits without Chris Godwin (7 rec/94 yds vs. 4.2 rec/52 yds with Godwin).
π€ Garrett Wilson: Combined WR16, projected for 95 receptions and 4 TDs, good for full PPR but with low TD upside due to the Jets' projected 4th fewest points and significantly lower pass volume.
π Xavier Worthy: Combined WR17, averaged 75 total yards over his final 10 rookie games, expected to make a rapid improvement as a 21-year-old early declare; his ranking is contingent on Rashee Rice's potential suspension.
π Terry McLaurin: Combined WR18, scored 10 red zone TDs last year (vs. 11 in his first 80 games), outperforming his expected 6 TDs, and needs a "pure run-good" season to re-enter top-12 WR status.
π George Pickens: Combined WR19 (WR26 in home leagues), expected to see 100+ more routes and a QB upgrade from the Steelers' 31st-ranked pass attempts, with strong reports on his integration in Dallas and a contract season.
π Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Ranked by one analyst as WR15, showing strong potential with 10th in receptions/game and 9th in yards/game after injury, and a high upside due to the Seahawks' offense.
ζ°δΊΊ Devontez Walker: Combined WR21, compared to Tee Higgins/Alshon Jeffery, a perfect scheme fit for Bryce Young's anticipatory passing, with underrated YAC capabilities (29 missed tackles forced last year).
π© Marvin Harrison Jr.: Combined WR22 (market WR14), ranked as low as WR27 by one analyst due to low Cardinals' WR usage (28th), zero manufactured touches, and PFF charging him with 47 tight-window targets (catching only 7).
π Travis Hunter: Combined WR23, expected to play 80% offensive snaps/nearly 100% routes, with comparisons to Justin Jefferson/Odell Beckham Jr. and a steep discount due to concerns about playing cornerback.
π΄ Courtland Sutton: Combined WR24, a "boring pick" that could pay off, receiving 95% of Bo Nix's preseason passes.
π Calvin Ridley: Combined WR25, expected to benefit from Cam Ward's aggressive and accurate passing, playing inside/outside, and leading all WRs in air yards last year, with room for improvement.
β¨ Emeka Egbuka: Combined WR26, poised for a late-season breakout as rookie WR (14 rookies since 2019 posted 16+ PPG from Week 9 on), with value not fully adjusted to Chris Godwin's significant injury.
π½ Jaylen Waddle: Combined WR27, a "conspiracy pick" due to his 13% target share last year (Weeks 8-16 with Tua Tagovailoa), but possesses elite talent and a long-term contract suggesting a potential WR1 season.
π― DeVonta Smith: Combined WR28, a consistent WR17 in PPG despite low Eagles passing volume, excelling with Jalen Hurts' deep balls and boasting a 4th-best WR completion rate on 20+ air yard targets.
π Jameson Williams: Combined WR29, praised by Dan Campbell as taking his game to the "next level," showing versatility beyond vertical threats and achieving 1,000 yards on fewer targets than most since 1992, making him a high boom-bust candidate.
π DK Metcalf: Combined WR30, a low-end WR1 on a slow-paced offense, running difficult routes with a cap on receptions despite his physical talent.
ππ¨ Zay Flowers: Combined WR31, excellent in play-action within the Ravens' run-heavy offense (31st in pass attempts), but reliant on long touchdowns and unlikely to become a top-24 WR.
π― Ricky Pearsall: Combined WR32 (highest drafted player for one analyst), led 49ers WRs in yards per route run vs. man coverage, benefiting from easy releases and currently the only healthy WR in 49ers camp.
π« Matthew Golden: Combined WR33 (ranked WR29 by one analyst), compared to Stefon Diggs/Will Fuller for his speed, expected to fill the Packers' need for a perimeter man-coverage winner, absorbing targets from an injury-riddled WR room.
π DJ Moore: Combined WR34 (market WR21), significantly lower ranking due to expected decrease in volume from last year's high Bears WR usage (6th in receptions, 4th in usage), with potential for D'Andre Swift-like usage in slot/screens.
β οΈ Rashee Rice: Combined WR35, a focal point of the Chiefs' passing game in the short/intermediate area, but faces a potential 6-10 game suspension; an excellent full PPR late-season hammer if you can plug early weeks.
π€ Chris Olave: Combined WR36, a good player with a league-winning "first downs per route run" metric, but faces a bottom-two offense with poor QB play and a high concussion risk profile.
π€·ββοΈ Rome Odunze: Combined WR37, expected to be the Bears' #1 pass-catcher, but preseason performance hasn't been "wowed" and showed some issues with zone coverage.
π©Ή Jauan Jennings: Combined WR38, a member of the 10% first down per route club and 4th best vs. zone coverage, but his value is uncertain due to a contract dispute and a "notorious" calf injury.
π Jerry Jeudy: Combined WR39, showed his best film last year and is PPR-friendly, with potential for "gunslinger Joe" Flacco to boost his production despite run-heavy tendencies.
π₯ Deebo Samuel: Combined WR40, a boom-bust candidate benefiting from the 49ers' high-scoring offense and reliance on 3rd/4th down conversions, but questions remain about his health after recent injuries.
β Stefon Diggs: Combined WR41, coming off an ACL injury (though practicing), was a WR7 early last year, but faces significant uncertainty with rookie QB Drake Maye.
π Jakobi Meyers: Combined WR42, was WR15 in usage and WR23 in PPG after Davante Adams' trade last year, potentially a good value despite new play-caller and contract year.
β³ Jordan Addison: Combined WR43, an "amazing" player for touchdowns and long passes, but a 3-game suspension and potentially lower route volume (37 per game last year) temper expectations.
βοΈ Darnell Mooney: Combined WR44, a "forgotten man" who led all WRs in completions per game (20+ yards) last year, showing improved play and set for significant field time in the Falcons' 11-personnel heavy offense.
π€ Jayden Reed: Combined WR45, limited by the Packers' preference for 3-WR sets (23.5 routes/game) and currently hobbled by injury.
π° Rashid Shaheed: Combined WR47, loved by analytics and compared to Jameson Williams in talent, offering incredible value with potential for more manufactured touches and receptions this year.
π€ Khalil Shakir: Combined WR51 (market WR45), a Year 2 player making his mark on YAC from the slot, potentially a breakout candidate given the Bills' historically strong offense and a potentially suspect defense leading to more passing.
Fantasy Life
The ULTIMATE Draft Strategy for 2025 Fantasy Football!
TLDR: Adapt your draft strategy (Hero RB, Zero RB) to capitalize on specific ADP values for QBs like Jalen Hurts (R3/4) and high-upside TEs like Tyler Warren (R8/13), while prioritizing late-round WRs with clear paths to targets.
π©Ή Tyjae Spears: On IR with a high ankle sprain, significantly boosting Tony Pollard's value as a borderline RB1 for the first four weeks.
π Najee Harris: Avoided the NFI list and is expected to be ready for Week 1, making him a "buy the dip" candidate.
π Late-Round WRs: When starting with a heavy RB draft, prioritize high-upside receivers in later rounds like Jha'Quan Jackson (Titans, low target competition from Van Jefferson), Isaac TeSlaa (Lions, traded for with future 3rd-round capital, strong preseason), Roman Wilson (Steelers, running outside in 11/12 personnel), and Troy Franklin (Broncos WR3, Bo Nix connection, big-play ability, Darnell Mooney comp).
π° Quarterback Value: Target dual-threat QBs like Jayden Daniels (Round 3 ADP, sometimes R5; 800+ rushing yards projects to top-10 QB) and Jalen Hurts (Round 3 ADP, sometimes R4) due to their high fantasy ceilings at a later cost.
β‘ Caleb Williams & Drake Maye: Both project for 4,000+ passing yards and 500+ rushing yards, a rare and valuable combination in fantasy.
π― Trevor Lawrence: Often forgotten, he's a potential value pick in a new offense with added weapons Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr.
π Joe Burrow: In SuperFlex leagues, he's a Round 2 target despite being a pocket passer due to his consistent high touchdown rate (not average 4.8%) and strong weapons.
π Running Back Sweet Spots: Aim for three running backs between Rounds 2-5 (e.g., Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Omarion Hampton). Another value sweet spot for contingency RBs is Rounds 7-9 (e.g., Jordan Mason, J.K. Dobbins, Jaylen Warren, Kaleb Johnson).
π Jonathan Taylor: While capable of 1,300 rushing yards and 10-12 TDs, his value is tied to the Colts' offense running well as he's not expected to catch many passes, especially with Tyler Warren added.
β Wide Receiver Volume: Target 5 strong wide receivers within the first 9-10 rounds. The WR tier drop-off is after A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey.
π Early/Mid-Round WR Value: Due to a loaded top 16-17, Round 2 WRs like Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. offer previous Round 1 value. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is a good target at the end of Round 3 due to his second-half breakout potential and on-field personnel usage.
π₯ Injured Slot WRs: Khalil Shakir and Josh Downs are expected to practice in Week 1, making their minor injuries less concerning.
π Tyler Warren (Colts TE): This rookie is a "skeleton key" late-round target (seen falling to R13, target R8). He's a highly athletic, 14th-pick tight end well-suited for RPO, play-action, and screen schemes, with potential to be an "absolute beast" by Week 5, close to George Kittle.
π‘οΈ Tight End Patience: Avoid forcing a tight end pick early. The difference between TE6 and TE9/10 is often marginal and can span 3-4 rounds of ADP. If waiting, consider drafting two later-round TEs (e.g., Tyler Warren and David Njoku in R10, or Tucker Kraft even later).
Comeback Mark Andrews: Often tumbles to Round 9 despite his high target share and vertical threat profile, similar to past fantasy-breaking TEs like Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham.
πΊοΈ Draft Strategy Guidelines: Utilize the article's draft strategy chart (updated on FantasyLife.com) as a guideline to allocate draft capital and pivot based on your first three rounds (Hero RB, SuperHero RB, Zero RB, Heavy RB). Avoid being in a "crunch" between Rounds 9-12 needing multiple core positions.
π Yahoo Specifics: Yahoo leagues are more conducive to a Zero Running Back strategy, as RBs tend to fall further and WRs go earlier, allowing you to start with three strong wide receivers.
Harris Fantasy Football Podcast
Handicapping The NFL In 2025 & Cutdown Day
TLDR: Chris Godwin and Najee Harris avoided PUP, signaling earlier returns than expected. Consider betting over on Bijan Robinson's rushing TDs and Brian Thomas Jr.'s receiving yards, while Adam Thielen's trade makes Jordan Addison a better draft value.
ποΈ Robert Tonyan: Cut by the Chiefs; the "quest for Tonyan" (finding undrafted, startable TEs) continues.
π Damian Martinez: Seahawks 7th-round RB cut, losing the 3rd-string job to undrafted George Holani.
π₯ Brandon Aiyuk: Starts year on PUP list, recovering from ACL; 49ers are reportedly playing his recovery conservatively.
π Tyjae Spears: Placed on IR with a high ankle sprain, expected to miss at least 4 games; rookie Dillon Johnson likely becomes #2 RB behind Tony Pollard, who is projected for heavy September usage.
πͺ Chris Godwin: Passed physical and avoided any injury designation, indicating he could return sooner than 4 weeks from his ankle injury, possibly in September, given the Buccaneers' thin WR depth.
π Najee Harris: Avoided the PUP list; Chargers state he has a chance to play in Week 1, though Omarion Hampton might initially be ranked ahead for readiness.
β¬οΈ Isaiah Likely: Avoided the PUP list despite missing all of camp with a broken foot; will need time to ramp up, benefiting Mark Andrews initially, but Likely offers future upside as a "beacon of passing" after Andrews.
π Jake Haener: The Saints' 2nd-round rookie QB did not win the starting job over Spencer Rattler, which is seen as a "damning statement" on the draft pick.
π Vikings Win Total: Bet Over 8.5 wins at -120 odds; the team outperformed its 5 actual wins with 11.1 expected wins last season, signaling potential progression.
π« Patriots Playoff Hopes: Bet Miss Playoffs at -140 odds; projected to win only 5 games due to a poor offensive line and lack of receiver depth beyond Stefon Diggs.
π Chiefs (AFC Winner): Bet at 4-1 odds; considered a strong choice with an improved receiving corps (Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy, Ja'Lynn Polk) and a new left tackle, consistent contenders.
π° Jaguars (AFC South Winner): Bet at +280 odds; they operate in a "rancid division" and could win 8-9 games despite concerns about their defense, run game, new receivers, and offensive line.
π Patrick Mahomes (NFL Passing Leader): Favorite bet at 9-1 odds; improved receiving options and a new left tackle position him well, despite being QB6 in fantasy drafts.
π― Trevor Lawrence (NFL Passing Leader Longshot): Bet at 22-1 odds; with a "terrible defense," he may be forced into high passing volume.
π― Jared Goff (NFL Passing Leader): Bet at +1200 odds; the Lions are expected to play in more pass-heavy, struggle games this year, increasing his passing volume.
πββοΈ Christian McCaffrey (NFL Rushing Leader): Favorite bet at 11-1 odds; offers "insane upside" if he stays healthy, providing significant value at this price point with no production hit from the Brian Robinson Jr. acquisition.
πββοΈ Najee Harris (NFL Rushing Leader Longshot): Bet at 18-1 odds; the Raiders' offensive line is considered "a little bit undervalued," and the coach intends to run heavily.
π Brian Thomas Jr. (NFL Receiving Leader): Favorite pick; he has the potential for a "historic rookie season" given his talent, combined with a potentially bad Jaguars defense leading to high passing volume.
π CeeDee Lamb (NFL Receiving Leader): Bet at 10-1 odds; expected a full, healthy season with high volume in a pass-heavy Cowboys offense, having been close to the title two years ago.
π Garrett Wilson (NFL Receiving Leader Longshot): Bet at 35-1 odds; has the potential to catch "150 balls" in a high-volume offense.
π Jayden Daniels (Passing Yards Prop): Bet Over 3,450.5 passing yards; projected at 3,600+ yards, supported by a strong cast of weapons (Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Zach Ertz) and excellent deep-ball accuracy.
π Brock Purdy (Touchdown Passes Prop): Bet Over 23.5 touchdown passes; he threw 20 TDs in 15 games last year, holds a 6% career TD rate (4.4% last year), and is expected to attempt more passes with sufficient weapons.
π De'Von Achane (Rushing Yards Prop): Bet Under 875.5 rushing yards; projected at 777 yards due to an expected 2-3 games missed and the team's offensive structure potentially limiting easy "flash plays."
π― Bijan Robinson (Rushing Touchdowns Prop): Bet Over 7.5 rushing touchdowns; projected to reach "double digits" and be a lead back for the next 5-10 years.
π Brian Thomas Jr. (Receiving Yards Prop): Bet Over 1150.5 receiving yards; highly talented, expected to be a top receiver who will earn significant yardage.
π Cooper Kupp (Receiving Touchdowns Prop): Bet Over 5.5 receiving touchdowns; projected at 6.9 TDs, averaging 90 yards/game, with high yardage correlating to touchdowns, assuming a return from injury-related bad luck.
π Adam Thielen: Traded to the Vikings from the Panthers, which is expected to lower his fantasy value; this trade also suggests the possibility of a Jordan Addison suspension.
β¬οΈ Jordan Addison: The Adam Thielen trade could further decrease Addison's draft price, making him an even better value pick despite a potential suspension.
π΄ Jalen Coker: A super deep sleeper who could benefit significantly as a slot option due to Adam Thielen's departure and a potential Jordan Addison suspension.
The Audible
Najee Harris Ready? Calvin Ridley, Tetairoa McMillan Values? [Footballguys Daily Update with Bob Harris for 8/27]
TLDR: Najee Harris (RB44, ADP 134) offers great value with a robust role expected in a run-heavy offense, while Calvin Ridley (WR27) is a strong upside play projected for a massive target share.
πββοΈ Najee Harris: Great value at RB44 (ADP 134 overall) with a robust role expected in a run-heavy offense, despite potential Week 1 absence; will need to see him play first.
π Tetairoa McMillan: Analyst is avoiding him at his current price due to a preference for players with more established roles going slightly ahead of him.
π©Ή Tyjae Spears: Placed on IR, will miss at least the first four games of the season, potentially boosting Tony Pollard's early-season role.
π Tony Pollard: Priced nicely at RB22 (ADP 5.11), he finished as RB22 in both total points and points per game last year and could exceed that with an expanded role due to Tyjae Spears' IR designation.
π― Calvin Ridley: Good value at WR27, despite recently missing time with an undisclosed injury (on pace to return prior to Week 1), expected to see a massive target share from a rookie QB as the sole proven playmaker.
π Spencer Rattler: Named Saints' starting QB over Jake Haener, which is viewed as a positive outcome for Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed managers.
β¨ Chris Olave: Despite multiple concussion concerns suppressing his ADP to WR34, he is projected to easily outproduce that number and be a WR2-type player if he stays healthy.
π Rashid Shaheed: A good value at WR52, having bulked up and currently healthy, with potential to re-establish his big-play capability.
π€ Taysom Hill: Placed on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, he will miss the start of the season due to ongoing offseason rehab woes.
The Fantasy Footballers
Fantasy Time Machine + Rashee Rice Suspended! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/27
TLDR: Rashee Rice is suspended for six games in 2025, not the upcoming season, making him a potential late-round "league-winning" pick for future drafts. Target undervalued Jaylen Waddle at WR46 ADP and Jake Ferguson at TE16 for significant upside this season.
π Joe Mixon: General manager comments suggest he may "not play at all this season" due to injury mystery, making him a final pick for IR only.
π¨ Rashee Rice: Will serve a six-game suspension to start the 2025 regular season, not impacting his 2024 availability.
π― Travis Kelce: Expected to have a "much, much stronger start" in 2025 due to Rashee Rice's suspension vacating short-area targets.
π Rashee Rice (2025 Draft): With a 6-game suspension, he's a bench deletion, but possesses "league-winning potential" as a 9th-round pick or later.
π Jaylen Waddle: Massively undervalued at WR46 ADP; was on pace for 1,300 yards in 5 games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and has the potential to become Miami's WR1.
πͺ Breece Hall: Predicted to "completely flip the script" despite negativity; elite pass-catching upside, averaging 5+ targets and 13+ rush times per game.
π Jayden Reed: Could be "truly the number one guy" for Green Bay with more snaps, making him a 9th-round target.
βοΈ Tyjae Spears: "Wheels up" as the departure of target-hog Adam Thielen (traded) is "great news" for his target share.
π‘ Jalen Coker: Recommended for deep leagues, favored over players like Cedric Tillman after the Adam Thielen trade.
π§ Baker Mayfield: Faces "some hesitation" to start the season due to injuries to key pass-catchers Chris Godwin, Cade Otton, and Tyjae Spears.
πββοΈ Bucky Irving: His path to a top-5 RB finish relies on his pass-catching ability, especially with Buccaneers pass-catchers out.
π Calvin Ridley: Identified as "this year's Terry McLaurin" at WR32 ADP; expected to benefit from new QB Cam Ward and a clear primary target role.
π©Ή Jauan Jennings: Despite a calf injury, he could be "very important" to the 49ers' WR room, previously 12th in YPRR and 14th in FP/RRT (75+ targets).
π΄ Keenan Allen: A "flyer" in the 12th round (expert league ADP example); his presence could negatively impact Ladd McConkey due to Harbaugh's offense spreading the ball.
π Kimani Vidal: The most talented Day 3 RB (4th round, 105th overall); among an elite group of RBs with 50+ targets and 1.75+ YPRR in college.
βοΈ Kyle Monangai: A direct "bet against" D'Andre Swift; had back-to-back 1200+ rushing yards at Rutgers.
β¬οΈ Dalton Kincaid: Despite a "disappointing" Year 2, his opportunity on a good offense could lead to a top-5 TE finish, currently "undrafted" in some leagues.
π° Jake Ferguson: A high-value pick at TE16 ADP after a 4-year, $50M extension; hit 10 points in 3 of 6 games with Dak Prescott without a TD last year.
π Daniel Jones: Projected as "this year's Sam Darnold" type for the Colts; averaged 31 rushing yards/game (7th most for QBs since 2000) with an improved offensive line (7th ranked).
The Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast
Becoming a Best Ball Bro: Does It Have to End?
TLDR: JJ's Best Ball portfolio features flat QB exposure with high conviction in specific late-round QBs (Drake Maye 17%, Jordan Love 14%) and significant closing line value (CLB) hits, particularly on Jacory Croskey-Merritt (up 137 spots) and Emeka Egbuka (up 40 spots), by prioritizing wide receivers in the late 4th to early 7th rounds.
π Draft Strategy: JJ achieved "very flat exposure across the board" this season, even more so than last year, due to a deeper pool of preferred late-round players.
π― WR Target Zone: Prioritized wide receivers in the "late fourth, into the fifth, through the sixth, into the early seventh" rounds.
π Drake Maye: Highest QB exposure at 17% in the $20 Millie contest, drafted consistently lower than his closing ADP.
πββοΈ Bryce Young: High exposure due to late-round stackability; averaged 5 rushing points per game and 18 standard points per game last year upon returning.
π§ Jordan Love: 14% exposure, valued for the Green Bay passing attack and easy stacking with players like Tucker Kraft and Romeo Doubs.
π Trevor Lawrence: 14% exposure, often stacked with Brian Thomas Jr., Travis Hunter, or De'Von Smith.
βοΈ Justin Fields: High exposure despite August/July Jets struggles; estimated 20% chance of being benched if healthy, focused on improving dropback play.
π° Lamar Jackson & Jayden Daniels: Lower exposure (4%) than desired (6-7%), regretting not drafting more Lamar Jackson in Round 3.
π¨ Chuba Hubbard: Low 1% exposure, prioritizing wide receivers in his ADP range, despite projecting Hubbard as an RB15-20 candidate.
π€ Jaylen Wright: 18% exposure from early-to-mid July; now facing potential surgery talks, identified as a "bonehead" mistake.
π Jerome Ford: 18% exposure, drafted before Quinshon Judkins' off-field issues; ADP remained static despite situation, finished last summer as pick 119.
β‘ Justice Hill: 18% exposure, valued as an explosive, pass-catching back in negative game scripts and a Week 17 correlation play with Jordan Love stacks.
π Braelon Allen: 12% exposure, capitalized on the market's slow reaction to his rising value.
π TreVeyon Henderson: 13% exposure with an average draft pick of 63.1 (5th-6th turn), now going in the 3rd-4th turn, yielding a full round of equity.
π€― Jacory Croskey-Merritt (JCM): 12% exposure with a massive CLB hit, up 137 spots since training camp, now going top 100 after being undrafted early.
π» Roschon Johnson & Jaylen Wright: Both currently carry questionable tags on DraftKings and are falling in drafts, making them solid options for Week 17 Bears stacks.
π¦ Ricky Pearsall: 18% exposure, bought heavily when on PUP list, average pick 81st overall, now 58th overall (up 23 spots), seen as an ascending talent with a strong athletic profile.
β‘ Keenan Allen: 10% exposure, average pick 193rd overall, now 110th overall (up 83 spots), a significant value gain.
π° Emeka Egbuka: 11% exposure, average pick 92nd overall, now 52nd overall (up 40 spots), reflecting strong value.
π€·ββοΈ Tyler Higbee: 13% exposure, frequently drafted in the 20th round, before Matthew Stafford's health concerns, though 10% exposure would have been preferred.
π Colston Loveland: 6-7% exposure, up 23.3 spots (2 rounds) since training camp.
π Tyler Warren: 6-7% exposure, up 33 spots since training camp, often going as early as late 6th round, which is too high an opportunity cost.
π΄ Daniel Jones: Still going in the 16th round despite being named starter for the Colts, presenting a potential value given the uncertainty around Anthony Richardson's immediate role.
The Ringer Fantasy Football Show
Last-Minute NFL News and Latest Fantasy Draft Trends
TLDR: Key players like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and Jaylen Waddle are currently falling significantly in drafts (~14-20 spots) which could create value, while rookie RB Ollie Gordon is a strong late-round target due to his physical profile and handcuff potential.
πͺ Christian McCaffrey: Remains uniquely valuable as the last RB who can provide Saquon-level multi-positional fantasy production.
π Matthew Stafford: Considered a "kingmaker" QB for fantasy, historically excellent at funneling production to his top playmakers.
π Puka Nacua: Ranked 13th overall by the hosts but "feels a tick high" due to injury concerns ("parlay"); Drake London is preferred over him. He averaged 20-21 PPG last season.
π De'Von Achane: Carries significant risk as a "double injury parlay" due to a current calf issue and smaller size, potentially losing goal-line work to Jaylen Wright or Ollie Gordon. Despite having the "highest upside of any player," he's considered too risky for a second-round pick.
π Ollie Gordon: The 6th-round rookie RB (6'1", 225 lbs) has "looked incredible" in preseason and is a "great last-round player," selected in the 16th round in a home league.
β¨ Omarion Hampton: Currently "ranks too low everywhere" and is expected to go higher than his current ADP in live drafts due to the Chargers' offensive potential.
π’ Tony Pollard: A "boring player" in the "Isiah Pacheco range," he's a "top 60 player" and a "wonderful 0 RB type guy" for quiet, consistent production.
π¦ Jalen Hurts: Touted as the "best fantasy football player since LaDainian Tomlinson" due to his high-scoring potential, even with the NFL's failed attempts to limit his rushing touchdowns.
π Breece Hall: ADP has fallen ~15 spots, creating a potential value opportunity if he drops further (e.g., 25 spots).
π Garrett Wilson: ADP has fallen ~14 spots, presenting a potential value if he drops significantly lower.
π Jaylen Waddle: ADP has fallen ~20 spots; some analysts passed on him due to "Dolphins stack" injury concerns (e.g., with Tyreek Hill).
π― Draft Strategy: Identify "boring guys," injured players, and players from the Dolphins and Jets as common fallers in drafts, creating potential value opportunities.
βοΈ Draft Strategy: If drafting early (e.g., a week before the season), cut your kicker to gain an extra roster spot for a high-upside player.
π§ Bill Simmons' Strategy: Drafted five quarterbacks (including injury-prone Tua Tagovailoa, Matthew Stafford, and Michael Penix Jr.) and two defenses, with the logic of hoarding QBs for later trade leverage.
Yahoo Fantasy Forecast
CRAM SESSION: The 8 biggest fantasy takeaways from the preseason
TLDR: Target Jayden Reed (top-75 value), Courtland Sutton (smash at ADP), and Omarion Hampton (rising RB1 potential). Expect increased target volume for Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle due to team situations.
π Jayden Reed: Rising from Yahoo ADP 113 to 105; considered a top-75 pick in the Green Bay offense (3rd in explosive play rate, 13th in success rate) amidst Christian Watson's falling ADP (109.3 to 121st).
π― Josh Jacobs: Scott views him as a first-round pick (current Yahoo ADP 16th overall), preferring him over De'Von Achane for hero RB builds.
π De'Von Achane: Moved down from a Tier 2 RB due to concerns about the Dolphins' offensive line and other factors.
πͺ Courtland Sutton: Considered a "smash" at his current ADP (Scott WR22, Harmon WR35, Boone WR31), viable as a WR2.
π Omarion Hampton: Rising rookie RB (ADP 33rd overall), projected for a 70-80% backfield share given Najee Harris's missed camp time (Yahoo ADP 130 overall).
β οΈ Chargers Offense: Projections should be docked due to the injury to top offensive lineman Rashawn Slater.
π‘οΈ Ladd McConkey: Scott's WR11 (Yahoo ADP 25th), boasts an 84.4% success rate vs. press coverage, but Keenan Allen's presence may cap target share at 22-23%.
β Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Rookie 7th-round pick's ADP is "over skis;" likely not a pass-catcher or goal-line back. With Brian Robinson Jr. traded, Scott prefers Austin Ekeler for receiving work and Chris Rodriguez Jr. for goal-line TDs.
π€ Daniel Jones (Colts): New Colts QB has a higher floor than Anthony Richardson but is physically compromised (ACL, neck injuries), limiting deep passes. The Colts Offense struggles, predicted for a 7-10 record (at best).
π Ricky Pearsall: Projected to average 10 targets per game in the first month for the 49ers due to a depleted WR room, has Brock Purdy's trust (target in 6th/7th round).
π₯ George Kittle: Scott's TE1, expected to finally hit 120-125 targets this season amidst a messy 49ers WR room.
β οΈ Matthew Stafford: Avoid drafting (QB19/15 last two years) due to long-term back injury concerns.
π Puka Nacua: Not a target for Scott due to 3 TDs / 1 red zone catch last year, injury history, and the addition of Davante Adams to the Rams, plus Kyren Williams' goal-line role.
πββοΈ Kyren Williams: Rams' goal-line back. Bet on volume (70-80% backfield share), not efficiency due to a drop-off in success rate and YPC last year (26 rush TDs, 5 rec TDs in 2 years).
π© Saints Offense: Predicted to be among the worst in football, making their opponents strong DST streaming targets (e.g., Arizona in Week 1).
π΄ Travis Kelce: Considered a "boring value pick" at age 36, projected for 135 targets, 85-90 catches, and 5-9 touchdowns.
π₯ Theo Johnson (NYG TE): Deep sleeper TE2 with elite athletic traits (6'6", 250lbs, 90th+ percentile broad jump), and is the clear starting tight end for the Giants.
π― Malik Nabers: "Too big to fail;" potential for 180-190 targets in the Giants' RPO-heavy offense.